The situation with the Middle East, and Persia (Iran) in particular is very bad. Nukes may get used. I spent real money and bought geiger counters recently, rather than anime. I'm probably going to get a more high end model eventually too. I really don't envy those of you in the EU. Things are going to be very bad there. EU is closer than the US, and EU security is much worse, so a backpack nuke in Rome, London, Paris, Berlin... its very believable. Iran says they want nuclear power for energy, but they're exporting oil and planning to export natural gas rather than use it to solve their energy problems. That means they want weapons, not energy. Nukes, almost certain ICBMs and backpack models for suicide bombing. Iran wants to make them, and distribute them. If we back off from dealing with Iran, we'll lose cities to those bastards. There are a lot of persians living where I do. They're upset about the situation, as many of them still have family in Iran. They can't do anything about it, and their families can't leave.
Ahmadinejad wants to have his way, and he's the mouthpiece of the ayatollahs, the secret police, and the military of Iran. What he says is approved by them first. So when he makes with the crazy threats, he's saying what those groups want said. He said he wants to nuke israel. Israel has nukes. Israel has planes. The US may look the other way and let Israel nuke Tehran and kill off some of the population of Iran, enough to really hurt them. It won't stop the backpack nukes campaign, but it will slow it down, and once the first nuke flies, the second comes that much easier. Israel can't afford to let Iran strike first. So Israel is just waiting for approval to fly, at this point. W has already announced that action will be taken, so he's pretty much lining up the allies. 2007 is the first year since 1945 that a nuke will be used in war. How's that grap ya?
Of course, the EU will whine and complain. They'll offer aid to Iran. Sell them weapons. Give them loans and technology so they can build higher yield nukes to kill more people. The EU are pussies. The EU WONT act until they've lost at least two cities. The first one is just to show Iran is serious. "They wouldn't do it again right... opps, there goes Brussels. Now what?" They're always willing to sacrifice their citizens to buy a little more peace (Hitler, anyone?). As far as the US is concerned, the EU is the next front of the war and we pity them for not standing up and crushing the middle east. I can see the seriousness of a true crusade rising after Paris gets nuked. The french have a lousy rep, but they did conquer most of north africa and racism is waiting in the wings like a social disease in remission. The next muslim race riots, if a backpack nuke gets used... well, I won't give good odds on the muslims in france or the rest of the EU. Its going to be very bad for them, like a larger scale Bosnia. The fighting will be... intense.
And that says nothing about the impending starvation that follows nuclear war. There's no grain stockpiles anymore. The warehouses are empty. Major crop failures due to radiation fallout on grain... millions will starve. Possibly billions.
As bad as the economic impact of 2 trillion USD$ evaporating, the war events of 2007 are far worse. Its gonna be a bad year. Hold onto your horses.