Over 11k Planning...thing...

zerohour

Well-Known Member
#1
Cilrais mentioned trying to organize a TFF system to increase the odds of winning Over 11k. If we want to try and organize execute this, we have a couple of options:

1: Designated buy-time. If you want to play Over 11k, do it within a specified time range, say 2-4 PM. If enough TFFers do this, then we have a higher likelihood of a TFFer winning it.

2: Organized Buy Time. Same as above, but we coordinate to a higher degree, buying in within a few minute of each other. This would be harder to organize, but the likelihood of someone else winning is lower.

3: Suicide buying. Limited to rich players, they all keep buying and buying until someone wins. This would take a lot of coordination as well, as well as being much more expensive, but the rate or returns would be faster, since fewer people would need to get it.

4: Distribution. Take any of the above methods, and have the winners share the loot within the circle. Much less beneficial, but it does make the plan less expensive, since only a few need to get Over 11k.

So, what do you guys think? If you have any alternative ideas, toss them out so we can have a look at them.

Edit:

Some math regarding this.

Cost of an entry: 9900
Entries to go from 1 to 11000: 1000
Maximum Base Cost: 9,900,000
10% off cost: 8,910,000
Cost for 11 entries: 108900
With Discount: 98010
Number of buys of 11 entries to go over 11000: 91
Odds of winning per 11 entries: 1/91= 1.098%

Maximum Cost to "Brute Force" winning Over 11k: 410,269,860
Cost for 91 person Brute Force: 8,918,910
Cost for 46 person Brute Force: 13,525,380
Cost for 91 Brute Forced: 811,620,810
 

cilrais

Well-Known Member
#2
I think #1 is our best bet to get placed into action, just gotta set up some kinda web poll to get all the villagers to select their most opportune time.
 
#4
Does #4 mean "do it until enough people have one to give everyone a sho nuff every 11/11"? Or does it mean "if you get your second Over11k, give it to someone else in the alliance who is in on this?" The latter is pretty much a necessity - otherwise, there's no real reason to coordinate.

Anyway, I'm in whatever you pick - although I won't be able to help that much with #3. I'd personally suggest a blend of #1 and #2 - pick a window, but also a specific time within that window. It has the advantage of making the TFF victory more likely, but if anyone can't make it to the rush, they can push it closer before the rush or possibly clean up after.
 

zerohour

Well-Known Member
#5
#4 works like this.

Say 50 people participate in the buy in. After a couple of days, five of them have Over 11k. Instead of continuing until everyone has it, they stop, and the five people who have Over 11k share the prizes (mainly Sho 'Nuffs and Golden Potions) with the other 45 people who helped. It costs a lot less, but it's much more inefficient.
 

Left Shoe

Well-Known Member
#6
I've already got 16 Golden Potions that I can throw into the pool .. IF AND ONLY IF this gets off the ground.
 
#7
Makes sense. I personally lean strongly away from #4, and especially a #4 without at least 1 total Over11k per 3 people. The thing everyone wants most of all is the Sho Nuff, after all - gold potions aren't worth enough to make up for the cash you have to throw in.
 

B.B. Rain

Well-Known Member
#8
I'd like to join, but I won't be able to seriously contribute for a bit...

My ryo's pretty low at the moment, about 600K, and that's reserved for the 11-Tails, which I'll be actually fighting in four days, when I've finally whittled away its Time Alive.

I make about 120K a day when I'm seriously trying, but for the next couple weeks, I'm going to be using all my existing Ryo and Stamina to Bit-farm, and fight both the 11-Tails and it's Revenge. After the 1/11 Festival, or more specifically after I'm done fighting the 11-Tails revenge, however it goes, I'll be more willing to buy an 11-entry each day, but until that time, I could only buy a single entry at the designated time period.

Also, until classes start up around 1/28, I should be able to buy-in anytime around 8:00 AM-9:00 PM sever time, given about a half-hour around the specific buy-in time.
 
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